Islamabad/IBNS: Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Monday said that a military incursion by India is certain to take place in the aftermath of a deadly terrorist attack on tourists in Kashmir last week that left 26 dead, paving the way for tensions between the two nations.

India has accused Pakistan of backing the attack, the worst targeting civilians in years. Pakistan has rejected the charge.

"We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken," Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif told Reuters in an interview at his office in Islamabad.

Asif said Pakistan's military had briefed the government on the possibility of an Indian attack. However, he refrained from revealing more details on the same.

He said Pakistan was on high alert and that it would only use its arsenal of nuclear weapons if "there is a direct threat to our existence".

Twenty-six people, including 23 Hindu male tourists, were killed by terrorists in Baisaran meadows, a popular destination in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, on April 22.

The terrorists- belonging to The Resistance Front (TRF), which is an offshoot of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)- asked the victims to chant Islamic verses (kalma) and made them pull down their pants to be sure of their their non-Muslim religious identities (read circumcision)  before gunning them down before their families, including wives, children and daughters.

The massacre triggered nationwide outrage and escalated India-Pakistan tensions as New Delhi vowed to avenge the killings.

In an immediate response, India suspended the landmark Indus River water-sharing treaty and closed the Attari-Wagah road border, which acts as  a lifeline of Indo-Pak trade and people-to-people ties, besides expelling diplomats, downsizing high commissions, and issuing a 48-hour deadline to Pakistani visa holders present in India to leave.

Indo-Pak Tension

The Pahalgam attack triggered a nationwide outrage and escalated India-Pakistan tension as the shadow of a war looms with New Delhi vowing to avenge the killings by pursuing the terrorists and their backers to the end of the earth.

In an immediate response, India suspended the landmark Indus River water-sharing treaty and closed the Attari-Wagah road border linking the two countries,  besides the expulsion of diplomats and issuing a 48-hour deadline to Pakistani visa holders to leave.

Nuclear armed neighbours India and Pakistan fought four wars since Independence with the first conflict in 1947-48 over Kashmir (Islamic tribal warrior invasion with Pakistan Army), followed by confrontations in 1965, 1971 (Bangladesh Liberation War) and 1999 (Kargil War).

Pakistan, which lost all four major wars with India, always resorted to proxy wars and exporting terrorism to Kashmir.

History of Kashmir 

Since their independence in 1947 from their  British colonial masters, India and Pakistan fought four major wars with each other over the disputed territory of the Jammu and Kashmir region, which was once a princely state till it joined India in 1947 during the Pakistan army-backed tribal invasion.

Soon after Independence, India had intervened to protect Kashmir and sought UN intervention after making significant military advancements. 

In the 1948 resolution, the UN asked Pakistan to remove its troops, after which India was also to withdraw the bulk of its forces.

Once this happened, a "free and fair" plebiscite was to be held for the Kashmiri people to decide their future.

India had gained a moral high ground by taking the issue to the UN and was confident of winning the plebiscite, since the most influential Kashmiri mass leader, Sheikh Abdullah, was firmly on its side.

However, Pakistan violated the UN mandate and continued fighting, holding on to the occupied portion of Kashmir (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir – PoK) under its control.

On January 1, 1949, a ceasefire was agreed, with 65 percent of the territory under Indian control and the remainder under Pakistan.

The ceasefire was intended to be temporary but the Line of Control remains the de facto border between the two countries.

In 1957, Kashmir was formally incorporated into the Indian Union. It was granted special status under Article 370 of India's constitution, which ensures, among other things, that non-Kashmiri Indians cannot buy property there.

Pakistan-backed Jihadist terror in 1989 resulted in the exodus of Kashmiri Hindus (Pandits) from the predominantly Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley in the early 1990s.

India, at the beginning of the second term of the BJP-led Narendra Modi government, revoked Article 370 in 2019, nullifying its special powers and autonomy, and launched a massive development initiative in Kashmir.

Pakistan, having lost all four major wars with India from 1947 till 1999, always shifted its focus to promoting proxy wars and terrorism in Kashmir, often with the support of communist China, keeping Indian authorities on its toes.