'Have established water rights, will take necessary measures': India's strong response on China's plans on Brahmaputra River dam

The Chinese government, under Xi Jinping, greenlit the construction of the world's largest dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet, just 22 km from India's Arunachal Pradesh, raising concerns in riparian states India and Bangladesh.

Stated to be the world’s biggest infrastructure project, the dam will be built in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the Tibetan name for Brahmaputra. The cost of construction is likely to surpass one trillion yuan ($137 billion).

The announcement about the dam's construction was made in an official statement quoted by state-run Xinhua news agency on Wednesday (Dec 25, 2024).

China’s continued efforts to control the waters of Brahmaputra has been long a concern for India, given the river’s vital importance to millions residing in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh.

During the weekly briefing in New Delhi on Friday (Jan 3, 2024), Ministry of External Affairs’ (MEA), official spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, made it clear that the construction of the dam would not be tolerated without proper consultation and transparency. Jaiswal emphasized, “We have consistently expressed our concerns through expert-level and diplomatic channels. As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we will continue to monitor developments and take necessary measures to protect our interests.”

India has asserted that any unilateral actions taken by China regarding the Brahmaputra could have far-reaching consequences, and China must follow the principles of transparency and consultation with countries downstream.

The construction of a massive hydropower dam, capable of generating three times the energy of the Three Gorges Dam, not only raises environmental and ecological concerns but also introduces serious strategic risks, particularly if China gains control over or diverts the flow of the Brahmaputra.

Such a move could severely affect water supply for India’s northeastern states, especially Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, which heavily rely on the river.

Furthermore, Tibetans living in the affected regions have endured increasing repression. Protests against these dam projects often been dealt with violent crackdowns.

In 2024, hundreds of Tibetans protesting the Gangtuo Dam were reportedly detained and beaten.

These developments raise grave humanitarian concerns, as the rights and well-being of Tibetans are frequently overlooked in the name of progress.

What are the geological and ecological challenges?

The proposed dam site is located in a massive gorge in the Himalayan region where the Brahmaputra takes a sharp U-turn to flow into Arunachal Pradesh and eventually Bangladesh.

Positioned in one of the world's deepest canyons, just after this bend, the site lies between Namcha Barwa and Gyala Peri, the two tallest peaks of the eastern Himalayas. The elevation here drops sharply by over 2,000 metres.

To divert half of the river's flow, the project will require drilling four to six 20-km-long tunnels through Namcha Barwa.

The site is situated on a tectonic plate boundary prone to earthquakes.

The Tibetan plateau, often referred to as the roof of the world, is seismically active due to its position over tectonic plates.

An observer warned that the dam could substantially alter the river's flow, impacting aquatic ecosystems, according to an India Today report.

Species dependent on specific flow patterns may face extinction or population declines.

Additionally, the dam may trap sediments essential for sustaining downstream habitats, potentially causing erosion and the loss of fertile lands in India and Bangladesh.

The observer further noted that changes to water flow could endanger various species, including endemic fish and wildlife, in the ecologically rich Brahmaputra basin.

While the dam might aid in controlling upstream floods, it could pose a risk of sudden or large water releases, causing unexpected downstream flooding and threatening over 400 plant and fish species.

Large dam projects typically involve extensive land acquisition, resulting in significant displacement and economic challenges for local communities. Climate change adds another layer of concern, with global warming accelerating glacier melt.

This could trigger extreme water flow and flooding in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh.

Another observer highlighted that shifts in water availability could adversely affect agricultural productivity in both countries, where irrigation heavily depends on consistent river flows.