New Delhi: Weeks ago, Arvind Kejriwal unveiled AAP’s manifesto with a bold demand—scrap income tax on earnings up to Rs 10 lakh.

Enter Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who not only met his challenge but one-upped him by raising the exemption limit to Rs 12 lakh in the Union Budget 2025.

With the Delhi elections just around the corner, this middle-class windfall could spell disaster for AAP’s campaign, particularly for Kejriwal in his own constituency, New Delhi.

For months, the salaried middle class—Delhi’s dominant voter base—had been clamouring for tax relief.

The government delivered and in grand fashion. From PM Narendra Modi to President Droupadi Murmu, the Budget speech was a love letter to the middle class, hailing them as the backbone of India's growth.

Even Kejriwal, who has long championed welfare for the underprivileged, suddenly found himself praising middle-class taxpayers for funding his government’s schemes.

Kejriwal tried to position himself as their advocate, urging the Centre to abolish taxes for those earning up to Rs 10 lakh.

But Sitharaman’s move effectively pulled the rug from under him, making his demand look not just redundant but outdone.

Delhi’s electorate is overwhelmingly urban—97% reside in cities, and 67% belong to the middle class, according to a 2022 PRICE survey.

The BJP’s budgetary gift has only strengthened its appeal, while AAP finds itself battling two terms of anti-incumbency, corruption allegations, and an aggressive Congress vying for the same anti-BJP votes.

Of Delhi’s 70 Assembly seats, 15 were won in 2020 by razor-thin margins of under 10,000 votes.

Between 2015 and 2020, the BJP steadily ate into AAP’s voter base among lower and middle-income groups, according to Lokniti-CSDS data.

Now, with tax cuts sweetening the deal, AAP’s grip looks shakier than ever.

While AAP is staring at a tough election, Kejriwal himself is in murky waters.

His New Delhi constituency, home to thousands of government employees, Grade A and B officers, and salaried professionals, stands to gain directly from Sitharaman’s tax cuts.

These voters, many of whom live in government quarters in Lutyens’ Delhi, are unlikely to ignore a budget that puts more money in their pockets.

And then there’s the question of Kejriwal’s track record.

A report by The Indian Express found widespread disillusionment among New Delhi’s residents.

Many complained that promised infrastructure and services never materialised.

Instead of basking in goodwill, Kejriwal finds himself facing frustrated voters and a powerful BJP eager to capitalise on his waning appeal.

Kejriwal’s call for tax relief has been granted—just not in the way he had hoped.

With an emboldened BJP, an assertive Congress, and an electorate that seems less enamoured with his promises, AAP’s road to a third consecutive term looks bumpier than ever.

And for Kejriwal himself, this election might be less about winning and more about surviving.