T20 World Cup 2026: India’s semi-final dream on the line — scenarios that could keep them alive

India lost to South Africa by 76 runs last Sunday, causing their Net Run Rate (NRR) to drop to over -3. Meanwhile, West Indies thrashed Zimbabwe by 107 runs, boosting their NRR to over +5.

South Africa, having also defeated India convincingly, holds an NRR of +3.8.

To advance to the semi-finals, India now must win their remaining two Super 8 matches, against Zimbabwe and West Indies.

Even if they win both, India could still face elimination if South Africa and West Indies also finish on four points, as NRR will then decide qualification.

A win in just one match may still give India a slim chance in a three-way tie scenario, but this would heavily depend on favourable results in other games.

Former Indian cricketer Dinesh Karthik said West Indies’ big win over Zimbabwe has made India’s task even harder. He added that if West Indies defeat South Africa in their upcoming match, India’s poor NRR could make it impossible for them to qualify, regardless of their results.

Karthik also highlighted that the South Africa–West Indies match on February 26 will be as critical as India’s own must-win match against Zimbabwe later that day in Chennai.

“Things are getting a little tricky in the Super 8 stage of this World Cup,” he said, underlining India’s uphill battle to reach the semi-finals.