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Agartala, Tripura
A P-MARQ exit poll for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election has projected a strong showing for the BJP, putting it ahead of the ruling Trinamool Congress in the 294-member Assembly. According to the survey, the BJP is expected to secure between 150 and 175 seats, crossing the majority mark of 148 comfortably.
The TMC, led by Mamata Banerjee, is projected to win 118 to 138 seats, indicating a significant drop compared to its previous performance. Other parties and independents are likely to bag 2 to 6 seats.
The second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 concluded on Wednesday across 142 constituencies spanning seven districts — including Kolkata, Howrah, North and South 24 Parganas, Hooghly, Nadia and Purba Bardhaman. According to Election Commission of India data, voter turnout in Phase 2 was recorded at over 91 percent, surpassing the already remarkable 91.78 per cent logged in Phase 1.
The projections suggest a direct and intense contest between the BJP and the TMC, with anti-incumbency, governance issues, and polarisation emerging as key factors influencing voter behaviour. The BJP's aggressive campaign and organisational push appear to have translated into gains across several regions, according to the poll.
If accurate, this would be a seismic result — the TMC won 215 seats in 2021, and even a fall to 138 would represent an 80-seat collapse.
The latest data from Matrize predicts a strong performance for the BJP, placing them in the 146–161 seat range. That would put the BJP right at or just above the 148-seat majority mark — making it an extraordinarily close call. Matrize has not yet published its TMC seat range separately, but the implication is that the TMC would fall in the 130–148 range — a significant but less catastrophic drop than P-MARQ projects.
For context, a third agency also weighed in on a different side of the debate. An exit poll conducted by People's Pulse projects a strong lead for the Trinamool Congress, estimating the party to win between 177 and 187 seats. The BJP is projected to secure between 95 and 110 seats, according to that survey.
Mamata Banerjee vs Suvendu Adhikari — high-stakes Bhabanipur battle took centre stage in Bengal polls. Photo: IBNS / ChatGPT
The gap between these surveys is unusually wide — ranging from a BJP majority of up to 175 seats (P-MARQ) to a TMC landslide of 177–187 (People's Pulse), with Matrize sitting in the middle projecting a razor-thin BJP edge. This kind of agency divergence is not unusual in Bengal, where exit polls have historically had difficulty capturing ground-level voter behaviour in a state known for its complex regional, communal and caste arithmetic.
The Left Front-Congress alliance's residual vote share is also a critical arithmetic factor — in 2021, the Sanjukta Morcha secured only one seat, yet analysis of Election Commission data reveals that the alliance's vote share actually exceeded the victory margin in 117 constituencies, representing nearly 40 per cent of the Assembly.
Where that vote goes in 2026 — and which party it bleeds to — could be the decisive variable.
The final answer comes on May 4, when counting begins.
