Clear cut victory for India, nuke storage targeting tilted outcome, says combat aviation expert Tom Cooper

"When one side is bombing nuclear weapons storage facilities of the other, and the other has no ability to retaliate left, then that's a clear cut victory in my books," the well known analyst said in his blog.

"In this case: a clear-cut victory for India. No surprise Islamabad 'sounded' for a 'cease-fire'," he wrote.

Taking a swipe at the Western media, Cooper said: "Frankly (as always), can't care less about PR-efforts by CNN & Co KG GesmbH AG, about New Delhi's insistence on ‘we’re a responsible democracy and thus can’t declare military victories’, and even less so about Western 'military Experten'."

Cooper's remarks followed a ceasefire between India and Pakistan the credit of which was claimed by US President Donald Trump as he declared the news to the world even before India could announce the decision.

Pakistan is believed to have approached the US and raised the nuclear alarm after Nur Khan airbase, its nuclear HQ, was damaged badly by India’s strategic strikes.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed the implementation of a ceasefire  between India and Pakistan during a press briefing on Operation Sindoor on Saturday.

He said the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan initiated a call to his Indian counterpart at 15:35 hours on May 10  following which both sides agreed to halt all military operations — on land, in the air, and at sea — with effect from 17:00 hours.

The Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting confirmed that the ceasefire was a result of direct communication between the two countries.

A section of experts and people in India were disappointed that the ceasefire came a bit too early and India should have inflicted more damage on Pakistan as it had a clear upper hand. Many attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for giving in to US pressure and agreeing to a ceasefire early.

While Pakistan has been claiming the ceasefire as its victory, Cooper said India's strike on the nuclear site was a game changer and the victor in the conflict is clearly India.

The Indian Air Force, however, said that the Indian Armed Forces did not hit the Kirana Hills region in Pakistan, which is speculated to have nuclear installations.

Speaking to the media,  Air Marshal AK Bharti said: "We did not know about it. And we have not hit Kirana Hills, whatever is there.”

Cooper wrote: "Regardless how much of evidence for what kind of losses in IAF fighter-bombers became available, the total outcome is crystal clear.

- The IAF must have found the way to suppress the PAF's flying component, and - almost certainly - also destroyed the mass of its ground-based air defence assets.

- The PAF was not only forced away from the border (thus opening the way for IAF air strikes), but also proved unable to defend some of most important facilities in Pakistan. Or at least: the PAF's capability to defend such facilities (even if 'just from Indian long-range air strikes') was largely neutralised.

"Why? Because 'nobody sane' is letting the enemy bomb both entrances to one of principal nuclear weapons storage facilities. Yet, that is precisely what happened at the Mushaf AB, i.e. the nuclear weapons storage facility of the PAF Sargodha complex.

"And if nothing else, and if you're insistent on 'beancounting', then mind: back in 1991, the USA (and allies) also lost more aircraft in combat operations than Iraq, during the Second Gulf War (how many Iraqi jets were smashed on the ground is a different topic). Still, I doubt anybody would come to the idea to dispute the outcome of that conflict..." he posted. 

Modi's stern warning to Pakistan

In an address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India will continue its action against terrorism and Operation Sindoor is only on pause.

Modi said, "Our aim was clear:  On May 6-7, we hit terror hideouts, their training centres, and terror camps in Pakistan. These terrorists had never imagined that India was capable of taking such bold and strong actions against them."

"When we hit them, it not only destroyed terror infrastructures but also their courage. Places like Muridke and Bhawalpur have links to every big terrorist attack across the world, whether it be 9/11, the London Tube bombings, or the Mumbai attacks. We have eliminated more than 100 terrorists and struck their headquarters," he said.

Who is Tom Cooper

Tom Cooper is an Austrian aerial warfare analyst and historian, according to publishing house Helion & Company. Following a career in the worldwide transportation business - during which he established a network of contacts in the Middle East and Africa - he moved into narrow-focus analysis and writing on small, little-known air forces and conflicts, about which he has collected extensive archives. This has resulted in specialisation in such Middle Eastern air forces as those of Egypt, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, and various African and Asian air forces. In addition to authoring and co-authoring more than 50 books - including an in-depth analysis of major Arab air forces during the wars with Israel in 1955-1973 - and over 1,000 articles, Cooper is a co-editor of Helion’s @War book series.